Method
How a read gets made.
Six steps, always in this order. The order matters more than any indicator: the idea and the way it fails are written down before a single level is drawn.
The six steps
01 · Context
Start from the weekly chart
Where is price against last week's range, and what is on this week's calendar? Nothing below the daily chart is read until this is written down.
02 · Thesis
Write the idea as a sentence
If the read cannot be said in one plain sentence, it is not a read yet. The sentence is published with it, word for word.
03 · Invalidation
Decide what proves it wrong
Before any level is drawn we write the event or close that would make the idea wrong. The stop goes where that happens, not where it feels comfortable.
04 · Levels
Levels, then the size they allow
Entry, stop and target follow from the chart. The size follows from the stop: a read is written for no more than x% of an account at risk.
05 · Publish
Time-stamped, before the move
Each read goes out inside the posting window with its time stamp. It is never edited afterwards; a correction is a new, dated note.
06 · Review
Every read is closed in public
Win, loss or scratch, each read gets a written review and a line in the record. Losing reads are not deleted, hidden or averaged away.
Risk per idea
Written for x% at risk, at most.
Every read is sized as though no more than x% of an account is lost if the stop is hit. That is how the record is measured, and it is a ceiling for the illustration, not a suggestion for you. Your own size depends on your circumstances, which we do not know.
A wide stop does not make a read safer. It makes the position smaller. If the stop the chart needs would leave a size too small to matter, there is no read.
- Account
- £x,xxx
- Risk at x%
- £xx
- Entry to stop
- xx pips
- Value per pip
- £x.xx
- Position size
- x.xx lots
Size comes from the stop and the amount at risk. Never the other way round.
When not to trade
The days we stay out.
Most of the work is deciding not to publish. These rules apply whatever the chart looks like, and each time one applies we say so in the channel.
See no-read days in the archive- Within x minutes either side of a tier-one release such as CPI, payrolls or a rate decision.
- When the invalidation cannot be written in one sentence.
- When the stop would have to sit somewhere the chart does not justify, just to make the size work.
- After x losing reads in a row: the desk pauses for x trading days and says so in the channel.
- On Fridays after 16:00 GMT, and on thin holiday sessions.
- When the spread on the pair is wider than its usual range.
Anatomy of a read
What every read contains, and what it never does.
- Pair, direction, timeframe and a time stamp
- The reasoning, in the order it was written
- What would make it wrong, in one sentence
- Entry, stop and target, with the desk's confidence
- A written review once it closes, whatever the result
- Tell anyone to act now or chase a move
- Move a stop after publishing to avoid a loss
- Get edited or deleted after the fact
- Promise a result, or describe one as likely to repeat
- Take your circumstances into account: it is general commentary